Daily F.X. Analysis, January 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - Eyes on the UK GDP!
On Mondy, the U.S. dollar continues to trade with bearish bias after the disappointing data from the labor market of the U.S. At 18:30 GMT, the closely watched Non-Farm Employment Change, which measures the number of employed people during December was released. It showed a decline to 145K from the expected 162K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings for December also decreased to 0.1% from the expected 0.3% and added in the pressure of the U.S. dollar to support EUR/USD further. Economic Calendar - Eyes on the UK GDP! Economic Calendar BTC/USD - Daily Analysis The BTC/USD slid beneath $8,000 and stayed moving towards the South direction on Friday. The crypto market turned back most of its profits. At the moment of reporting, BTC/USD is trading at $8,000, dangerously near to the 50 periods SMA weekly (currently at $7,690). The leading cryptocurrency has dissipated more than 2% of its worth in recent 24 hours and 1.2% since the inception of Friday. Previously, the BTC/USD pair has tested the downward target of 7765 on the back of a firmer U.S. dollar. On the 4 hour timeframe, the BTC/USD has faced double bottom support near 7765, which continues to stay support for Bitcoin. Support Resistance 7,807.5 8,303.99 7,495.74 8,488.72 6,999.25 8,985.21 Pivot Point 7,992.23 The BTC/USD is trading at 8065, which marks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement market. The leading crypto pair has entered the overbought zone on the smaller timeframes, which may drive a slight bearish correction in the BTC/USD until 7,950. On the higher side, Bitcoin may find resistance around 8,224 today. The EUR/USD closed at 1.11212 after placing a high of 1.11291 and a low of 1.10850. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish throughout the day. At 12:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production for November showed a growth of 0.3% against the expected 0.1% and supported the single currency Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production for November also showed an increase of 0.1% against the forecasted 0.0% and favored Euro. Stronger than expected Industrial production from France & Italy gave strength to Euro against the U.S. dollar on Friday and moved EUR/USD prices in an upward direction. On the other hand, the EUR/USD was also supported by the weakness of greenback on Friday after the disappointing data from the labor market of the U.S. At 18:30 GMT, the closely watched Non-Farm Employment change which measures the number of employed people during December was released. It showed a decline to 145K from the expected 162K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings for December also decreased to 0.1% from the expected 0.3% and added in the pressure of the U.S. dollar to support EUR/USD further. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped almost 2.5% on the back of weak Labor data, and the U.S. Dollar Index also fell by 0.8% to 97.35 level. The weak U.S. dollar added in the upward movement of EUR//USD prices towards 1.1129 level. Meanwhile, German Buba President Jens Weidmann, who is also a policymaker in European Central Bank, called on the banks to come up with a cheaper and faster system for transferring money. He said that it was now necessary to fight with Facebook Inc.'s Libra and come up with a mean of money transfer against it. He also said that there was no pressing reason yet for the European Central Bank to develop its digital currency. Support Resistance 1.1094 1.1138 1.1068 1.1156 1.1023 1.12 Pivot Point 1.1112 The U.S. Dollar is likely to trade with a bearish bias over the negative and disappointing NFP data, which is underpinning the EUR/USD pair. For now, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1130, and it's very likely to surge to 1.1156. On the lower side, the support commands at 1.1123 today. On the upper front, the EUR/USD pair can trade bullish unto 1.1165 and 1.1195. The 50 periods EMA is still suggesting bearish bias, and the RSI is holding in the overbought zone, which is signaling chances of a bearish bias. The GBP/USD closed at 1.30637 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30422. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained steady throughout the day. In the nonexistence of any macroeconomic data from Britain, the pair followed the direction of the U.S. dollar on Friday and posted small gains on the back of the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The disappointing data from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped GBP/USD to post some gains in the market. The GBP/USD moved towards 1.309 level amid the disappointing Non-Farm Employment change from the U.S. as 145K in December. However, the pair started to fell and lost its gains after the comments from Bank of England's member and ended its day at the same level it started with to give a steady movement for Friday. On Friday, the Bank of England Policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said that if England's economy does not show signs of growth in the coming months, then she would incline to ease monetary policy by cutting interest rates. On Thursday, the Governor of BoE, Mark Carney, also gave the same reviews in which he said that if the economic weakness seen in late 2019 persisted in 2020 as well, then that would be a case for cutting interest rates. Onn Friday, Tenreyro said that the economy was likely to show less growth than the BoE's forecast from November. The Bank of England's next decision for interest rate will be published on January 30. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, Britain's economy started to lose its momentum, and it slowed to crawl in late 2019. Some signs of pick-up came in after the victory of PM Boris Johnson in elections on December 12. Tenreyro said that if the uncertainty regarding the trade deal with European Union persisted in the market or the slow global growth continued to weigh on demand of British Pound, then she would vote for an Interest rate cut in the next meeting. These dovish comments weighed on Pound, and GBP/USD lost its early gains on Friday. Support Resistance 1.3038 1.3093 1.3013 1.3122 1.2958 1.3177 Pivot Point 1.3068 The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3012, violating the double bottom and descending triangle pattern, which can be seen on the 4-hour charts. The pair has formed a bearish engulfing candle below 1.3060 pivot level, which is likely to drive more selling trend in the pair. The GBP/USD pair can drop further until 1.2975 and 1.2905. The RSI and 50 EMA both are supporting the bearish trend, which is why we should also look to stay bearish below 1.3068 today. Besides, we also need to keep a close eye on the British GDP figures, which are due during the European session. All the best for today.