Daily F.X. Analysis, January 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - Trump Eases War Tensions! 

On Thursday, the U.S. dollar is trading with a bullish bias as speech from U.S. President Donald Trump. Besides, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December exceeded the expectations of 160K and came in as 202K. The growth in employment data of the United States in the ending month of last year gave the impression of growing economic conditions and supported the U.S. dollar on Wednesday. 

Traders will be waiting for the U.S. NFP figures, which are due to come out on Friday, and today, most of the focus will remain on the technical side of the market. 

Economic Calendar - Trump Eases War Tensions

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis 

On Thursday, the BTC/USD prices have just rushed to $7,920, producing a mysterious daily candle, indicating a possible correction resulting in the mid-$7,000s in the following days.

Bitcoin has given up all its gains, which it made previously on the back of a stronger dollar. The six-day bullish momentum which drove Bitcoin prices higher from a low of $6,850 to a high of $8,450 has finally come to an end on Wednesday. 

Trump's speech caused a drop on the safe-haven appeal as he found not to escalate the U.S. Iran war. Consequently, the U.S. dollar is getting stronger, recovering all the losses it made on News. Due to this, the BTC/USD pair is trading lower after testing 8,400 resistance. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels 

Support    Resistance 

7,781.7        8,320.19

7,558.25     8,635.23

7,019.76     9,173.72

Pivot Point 8096.74

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD pair is trading lower after testing 8,400 resistance. For now, 8,105 remains a crucial level as a leading cryptocurrency may trade bearish below this level to target 7,765. In the case of bullish crossover of 8,105, the Bitcoin can surge to 8,350 level. 

EUR/USD – Bullish Trendline Breakout

The EUR/USD closed at 1.11053 after placing a high of 1.11681 and a low of 1.11016. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day.

At 12:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for November were released, which showed a decline to -1.3% from the expected 0.2% and weighed on the single currency. At 12:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance for November came in as negative -5.6B against the expectations of -5.0B. 

The decline in Factory Orders from Germany and the deficit trade Balance from France for November weighed heavily on Euro currency and dragged down the pair EUR/USD on Wednesday.

On the other hand, from the American side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December exceeded the expectations of 160K and came in as 202K. The growth in employment data of the United States in the ending month of last year gave the impression of growing economic conditions and supported the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

The Stronger employment change from the United States added in the downward movement of EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. The weaker Euro and stronger U.S. dollar dragged the pair EUR/USD towards the lowest point for six days at 1.11016.

On Wednesday, in an interview, the ECB President Christine Lagarde raised concerns that the time period of 11 months was insufficient to conclude a trade deal with the United Kingdom. She said that Britain is set to leave E.U. on January 31, 2020, which is one less uncertainty for investors of the financial market. She added that the biggest challenge remains unclear, which is reaching a trade deal with the U.K. during the provided transition period of 11 months.

Lagarde also warned about plenty of other risks ahead, which included climate change. She said that ECB would play its part in the fight against climate change and would assess the costs and benefit s of issuing a central bank digital currency.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.1086     1.114

1.1067     1.1174

1.1014     1.1227

Pivot Point 1.1121

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The dollar has gained its strength back as the market isn't expecting any further escalation in tensions between Iran and the U.S., particularly following Trump's speech. We may see the EUR/USD dropping towards 1.1080 level, followed by a slight correction of until 1.11350 today.

Besides, the EUR/USD has violated the bullish trendline, which was supporting the EUR/USD around 1.1095. Below this, bearish bias remains pretty solid with a target of 1.1070. 

GBP/USD - Symmetric Triangle Breakout

The GBP/USD prices closed at 1.30938 after placing a high of 1.31694 and a low of 1.30801. Overall the trend for GBP/USD remained bearish for that day.

On Wednesday, British Pound erased its early gains when investors refocused their attention towards Brexit talks. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the new European Commission President, had first meeting about Brexit talks on Wednesday.

According to sources, Johnson in the meeting made it clear that the U.K. would not be requesting an extension in the transition period of 11 months. Johnson told the commission leader that he wanted a Canada-style free trade deal after January 31.

The European Commission leader, however, said that it would be impossible to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal with the U.K. within the provided timeframe by Johnson. She said that covering all the aspects of Brexit in 11 months was impossible.

The E.U.'s chief Brexit negotiator, Micheal Barnier, said that leaving E.U. was not a simple procedure as it covers almost 600 international agreements and a new free trade agreement. She also warned that without an extension of the transition period, the U.K. should not expect from E.U. to agree on every single aspect of a new partnership.

Ursula warned that tariffs and quota-free access to the single market came with conditions, and Britain would have to agree to the rules of worker's rights, and anti-dumping measures. However, Johnson has already said that he wanted to break with E.U. rules to achieve sovereignty for which Brexit supporters voted him.

With Johnson reluctant to provide any extension, the chances of no-deal Brexit at the end of the year still prevails and threats of which would continue to weigh on British Pound. 

On the other hand, At 13:30 GMT, the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) for December from the United Kingdom showed growth in the Housing sector with 1.7% against the expected 0.6% and supported Pound.

From the American side, the closely watched ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was released at 18:15 GMT from the United States and showed growth in Employment numbers in December by 202K against the expectations of 160K. The rise in the number of employed people gave strength to the U.S. dollar and appended in the downward trend of GBP/USD on Wednesday.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.3061      1.3151

1.3026      1.3206

1.2936      1.3296

Pivot Point 1.3116

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3115, holding below a strong resistance level of 1.3135. The RSI and 50 EMA both are suggesting bearish bias among traders. Below 1.3120, the cable has the potential to go after 1.3050 and 1.2990 on the lower side. While the bullish breakout of 1.3135 can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.3189.

All the best for today.