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Daily F.X. Analysis, April 01 – U.S. & Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI In Highlight!  

On Tuesday, widened the ability of many international central banks to locate dollars through the coronavirus crisis by empowering them to switch their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities for dollar loans. With this, the demand for U.S. dollar soars, driving the competitive securities lower. The market will be focusing on the U.S. ADP Employment Report, and the ISM Manufacturing data are also scheduled to release in this day later. Let's take a look. Economic Calendar   Economic Calendar   The BTC/USD ended the 1st quarter of 2020 in a bearish mode when compared with the start of the year. However, it's not as bad as the historical losses experienced by worldwide equities. On a 24-hour footing, BTC/USD was in exhibiting bullish momentum along with ETH/USD, which also edged higher slightly. The BTC/USD price levels up to the $6,500 but lack bullish momentum to maintain profits towards the next resistance level of $7,000. Most of the technical indicators follow in support of the bulls who look forth to a growing triangle breakout to $8,000 mark. The BTC/USD price bearish action over the weekend covered the substantial support at $5,800, averting potential losses to $5,000. On Monday overcame several resistance levels, including $6,200 and $6,400. BTC/USD also stepped above the key $6,500 zone but formed an intraday high at $6,525. The largest cryptocurrency has adjusted downwards to trade at $6,442. Intriguingly, the trend remains strongly bullish, but the volatility is low due to reduced trading volume. Support Resistance 6,174 6,747 5,801 6,946 5,228 7,519 Pivot Point 6,374 As we anticipated, the BTC/USD prices traded bearishly below a strong resistance level of 6,533. Closing of candles below this level are driving selling bias for the Bitcoin, and its prices can drop to 6,235 area. Violation of this level can lead to Bitcoin prices further lower until the next support level of 5,975. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 6,530 level can break Bitcoin prices higher towards 6,880 level. Overall, the trend is likely to stay bearish below 6,880 level. Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to flash red and still considered bearish despite the recovery from the lowest level of 1.0930 to 1.1039. However, the currency pair failed to continue its notable recovery mainly due to traders are preferring to buy the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven demand. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1023 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1006 - 1.1039. Although, the traders are cautious about placing any bid ahead of German retail sales and manufacturing data. By the way, the currency pair representing 0.15% declines on the day. The EUR/USD currency pair faced rejection near 1.0940 during the early Asian trading session and stepped back near 1.010 level even though China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which concentrates on small and medium-sized export-oriented units, ignored past expectations to indicate fresh development in the activity in March. The German data, which is scheduled at 06:00 GMT, is expected to show consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, increased 1.5% year-on-year in February, after January's 1.8% growth. Whereas, the Markit Manufacturing PMI figure is forecasted to show in at 45.5, highlighting a slight decline from the preliminary estimate of 45.7. An unexpectedly weaker data may draw offers for the common currency, pushing EUR/USD pair to levels below 1.10. Support Resistance 1.1002 1.1099 1.0958 1.1151 1.0862 1.1247 Pivot Point 1.1054 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020, right above an intraday pivot point level of 1.1002. Closing of candles above this level can keep the EUR/USD prices bullish until 1.1052 and 1.1095. Conversely, the bearish breakout of the 1.1002 level can lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next support area of 1.0975 and 1.0934. Choppy sessions are expected until the release of NFP figures on Friday. The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and dropped below the 1.2400 level once again, mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) concerns. As well as, the fears of a double-digit drop in U.S. Q2 2020 GDP also weighing on the risk sentiment, which eventually attributed to the pairs declines. At the press time, the GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2380 and consolidate in the range between the 1.2364 - 1.2443. The United Kingdom's death toll rose sharply by 27% due to the coronavirus. The 14% increase in the cases of infected people by the virus. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom's policymakers continue to struggle in order to justify their efforts in ending the virus outbreak, although the official figures showed that confirmed coronavirus cases had increased 14% during Monday and Tuesday to 25,150 as of Tuesday at 0800 GMT. On the other hand, the coronavirus cases continue to rise in Europe, with Spain and Italy reporting a total of 200,000 cases so far. The U.K. police are facing a very stricter order to make sure that the lockdown works as planned because of the sharp rise in death toll and cases so far. The Health Secretary Tim Hancock stated that Hospitals should use additional laboratory space to quickly test NHS staff in England for coronavirus who are self-isolating. Whereas, the advice appeared when the government was facing heavy criticism about a shortage of testing for frontline staff. As we already mentioned that the concerns of a double-digit reduction in the U.S. Q2 2020 GDP weighed on the market's risk-tone during the early Asian session. Support Resistance 1.2319 1.2444 1.2256 1.2505 1.2131 1.263 Pivot Point 1.238 The GBP/USD soared to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling. At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling a pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level. The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!
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Daily F.X. Analysis, March 31 – Eurozone's Inflation Report In Focus! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.7% on the day to 99.04, halting a six-day losing streak. Later today, eyes will be on the European Commission will post March CPI (+0.6% on-year expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report the March jobless rate (5.1% expected). France's INSEE will release March CPI (+1.0% on-year expected). The U.K. Office for National Statistics will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+1.1% on-year expected). Economic Calendar The leading cryptocurrency opens lower on Tuesday to drop from 6,700 level to trade at 6,400 zones. The BTC/USD has plunged for the second time during the previous week, which has to lead its prices below $6,000 psychological level. On Tuesday, the BTC/USD crossed over $6,000 mark as traders seem to buy cheaper Bitcoin to sell it later at higher prices. Currently, the Bitcoin is trading at $6,417 has it managed to crossover a horizontal resistance level of 6,000 mark on Monday, where the violation of this level could send the Bitcoin prices towards $5,700 and $5,350. Below this, traders will look to $4,446, where the price previously created a double bottom. It looks like most of the investors disregard Bitcoin's weekend price action as trading volume reduces through this time. On Tuesday, the prices are gaining support and are likely to drive some bullish momentum in the market. Support Resistance 6,174 6,747 5,801 6,946 5,228 7,519 Pivot Point 6,374 On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency pair continues to trade higher to test the support become a resistance level of 6,530 area. Closing of candles below this level are likely to drive selling bias in the Bitcoin, and its prices can drop to 6,235 area. Violation of this level can lead to Bitcoin prices further lower until the next support level of 5,975. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 6,530 level can break Bitcoin prices higher towards 6,880 level. Overall, the trend is likely to stay bearish below 6,880 level. During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 1.10 level, mainly due to the greenbacks recovery trend. The EUR/USD currency pair is losing its ground for the consecutive session on the day ahead of the data. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0996 and consolidates in the range between 1.0991 - 1.1055. Earlier in the Asian session, month/quarter-end flows and some stress return around the dollar funding, which have been supporting the recovery in the buck and pushed the DXY to fresh 2-day highs near 99.60, where it runs out of steam. Eventually, it weighs on the EUR/USD currency pair. At the data front, German Import Prices declined 0.9% MoM during February and 2.0% over the last 12-months, all ahead of the release of the more relevant labor market report later in the session. European Commission will post March CPI (+0.6% on-year expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report the March jobless rate (5.1% expected). However, the EUR/USD pair dropped from 1.1495 to 1.0636 in the 14 days to March 23 before recovering some poise with a move above 1.10. At press time, the spot is trading mostly unchanged on the month below 1.10. Support Resistance 1.1002        1.1099 1.0958 1.1151 1.0862 1.1247 Pivot Point 1.1054 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD tested the forecasted support level of 1.0975, and now it's closing neutral candles above the same support level. On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/USD has formed an upward trendline, which is supporting the EUR/USD prices around 1.0975 level, and these may drive some buying until 1.1060 and 1.1145. On the other hand, a bearish breakout of 1.0965 can leads the EUR/USD prices lower towards 1.0884. The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 1.2350 level, mainly due to the fresh concerns regarding Brexit deadlines. As well as, the decreasing coronavirus cases fresh report failed to give any significant support to GBP currency. While the downbeat business sentiment is weighing on the currency pair. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2333 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2255 - 1.2420. As per the latest report that the surveys conducted by the market research firm GfK and Lloyds Bank, suggesting a decline in the U.K.'s consumer and business confidence. Downbeat sentiment drives the indices, but the fresh coronavirus report has also revived the struggle between the European Union and the United Kingdom regarding the December 31, 2020 deadline, after the political group of European Union pushed the U.K. to do some responsible work and extend the Brexit transition period as well. The United Kingdom Boris johnson representative stated that the Brexit transition period would end on December 31, 2020, because this is included in the United Kingdom law. The United Kingdom politicians also indicated that there are fewer chances of further lockdown measures while singling continued struggles against the coronavirus during the twelve weeks. The GBP currency took some support from the recent report of coronavirus that suggested a drop in cases from March 27 figures of 2,900 to 2,400 new facts on March 29, but the Guardian raises doubts on it. Support Resistance 1.2319 1.2444 1.2256 1.2505 1.2131 1.263 Pivot Point 1.238 The GBP/USD soared to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish on Monday, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling. At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level. The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!
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Daily F.X. Analysis, March 30 – Risk Sentiment Remains Mixed - COVID19 In Play!  

The U.S. dollar closed a week with a bearish bias, and the safe-haven yen rose on Monday, as coronavirus lockdowns tightened across the world. Traders braced for an extended interval of uncertainty. The U.S. dollar soared versus its peer currencies, especially against the Sterling, Euro, Kiwi, and the Aussie. Sterling was last 0.7% softer at $1.2371; the Aussie slipped by nearly the same margin at $0.6134 while the euro was 0.5% weaker at $1.1082. Let's look at the fundamental and technical outlook of the market. Economic Calendar     The BTC/USD has plunged for the second time during the previous week, which has to lead its prices below $6,000 psychological level. Today's pullback beneath the $6,000 mark seems to be the weekly and monthly close approach, and, probably, investors could also influence concerns that traditional financial markets such as forex and stock may start to correct itself on Monday, especially during the U.S. opening bell. Currently, the Bitcoin is trading at $6,217 has it managed to crossover a horizontal resistance level of 6,000 mark during the Asian session. Beneath $5,700, $5,350 is the following area of support, and under this level, investors will look to $4,446, where the price previously created a double bottom. It looks like most of the investors disregard Bitcoin's weekend price action as trading volume reduces through this time. On Monday, the prices are gaining support and are likely to drive some bullish momentum in the market. Support Resistance 5,763 6,150 5,634 6,408 5,376 6,537 Pivot Point 6,021 The leading cryptocurrency opens lower on Monday to drop from 6,700 level to trade at 5,700. On the hourly chart, the BTC/USD has formed triple bottom support at 5,700 level. Closing of candles above this level can extend buying until 6,155. Above this, the next target is likely to be found around 6,392. The EUR/USD is flashing red and dropped to the 1.1070 from the high level of 1.1145, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment. The U.S. equity index fell as the United States President Donald Trump extended lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing till April to control the intensifying spread of coronavirus. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1076 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1069 - 1.1144. However, the decision of Trump to extends the lockdown is showing more possibilities of slowdown, which boosts the U.S. dollar and pushing the pair lower. At the USD front, the U.S. dollar is getting boost once again from the risk-off tone in the Asian stocks and the U.S. equity index futures. Despite China's rate cut, the investors are cautious about placing any position due to the worsening situation in the United States. The United States President Donald Trump's declaration to extend social distancing throughout April, which fueling the fears of a recession. The economic fallout in the West has seemed to start, and another sell-off in the stock markets could be seen soon. As in result, the U.S. treasuries (and the greenback) could continue to gets support as a safe-haven demand in the near-term. However, the bearish tone in the currency pair may further increase if there is a delay in the unified fiscal response from the European Union. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair can face bearish pressure on Monday, until the market releases any further supported event. Support Resistance 1.101 1.1205 1.0885 1.1274 1.069 1.1469 Pivot Point 1.1079 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD is also trading with bearish bias after surging to the 1.1150 area. It seems to have entered the overbought zone as the pair has already completed 50% Fibo retracements on the daily timeframe at 1.1075. Above this, the next resistance can be found around 1.1165 level, which marks the 61.8% Fibo area. On Monday, the 1.1065 area is a crucial level, and it may keep the pair bullish above or bearish below this level. On the lower side, the next support can prevail around 1.0975. During the early Asian session, the GBP/USD is found on the bearish track and dropped below the 1.2400 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment. Most of the selling triggered in the wake of intensifying coronavirus fear in the U.K. The fresh recovery in the U.S. dollar also keeps the pair lower. Right now, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2395 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2361 - 1.246. While considering the Economics and Business Research (CEBR) report, the Guardian said that the United Kingdom's economic output might drop by 15% in the 2nd-quarter of the year. Furthermore, the report also indicates a rise in the death losses to 1,228 and 19,522 as positive cases, including the national leader. Earlier, the global rating agency Fitch deceased the U.K.'s credit rating from A.A. to AAA- with a negative outlook, which is adding bearish pressure on Sterling. According to a U.K. Telegraph report, access to intensive care for coronavirus patients is now limited to those reasonably certain to survive, as per the sources from the National Health Services (NHS) London Trust. The department head at Imperial College Healthcare announced on Sunday that minimal patients are being selected for ventilator treatment because so many severe cases require to stay a couple of weeks on the ventilator. Support Resistance 1.2234 1.2576 1.2019 1.2701 1.1678 1.3042 Pivot Point 1.236 The GBP/USD soared on Friday to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish on Monday, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling. At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level. The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!
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Daily F.X. Analysis, March 27 – COVID19 Continues to Dominate the Market 

The fundamental side of the market remains light due to a lack of market-moving macroeconomic indicators. Eyes will stay on COVID 19 and how different nations are looking to deal with it. The coronavirus death losses in Spain officially crossed the China figures and becoming the 2nd-highest in the world. The health system is falling under the weight of the disease. However, the coronavirus outbreak is not showing any sign of slowing down in the Eurozone. Economic Calendar The BTC/USD extends trading within the same trading range of 6,850 to 6,575. We may see further trends in Bitcoin only when it breaks either on the higher side or the lower side. The COVID-19 pandemic proceeds to display with terrible consequences beyond the globe, desperate measures to keep the economy floating continue to be steered by global governments. Presently, the most striking illustration is the U.S., which lately announced an extensive quantitative easing plan and also entered an agreement for a $2 trillion stimulus program. The extensive quantitative easing means will cause the Federal Reserve to buy assets "in the quantities required to accommodate smooth market functioning. Right after the decision was made, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin rallied nearly 10% from $6,300 to $6,900. At the moment, the BTC/USD has sunk to $6,630, and crypto markets have remained relatively stable during the day. Support Resistance 6,507 6,962 6,228 7,139 5,772 7,594 Pivot Point 6,683 The leading crypto pair BTC/USD continues to trade within the same trading range of 6,850 to 6,575 for another day, as traders seem to pay less interest in trading in the wake of the increased number of cases around the globe. On the lower side, violation of the 6,530 support level can extend selling until 6,395, and even below this, the next support is likely to be found around 6,175. Whereas, the bullish breakout of 6,815 level can drive more buying until 7,260. The EUR/USD currency pair continued its recovery rally and hit above the 200-day Moving Average hurdle at 1.1082 because the U.S. Dollar continues to get weak in the wake of negative U.S. labor market official data released Thursday, which showed the initial jobless claims topped to 3.2 million last week, against the forecasted figures for 1.5 million by a big margin. The uptick in the global equity market also contributed to the greenback weakness. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1059 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1023 - 1.1087 At the USD front, the greenback is continuing its previous bearish bias with the dollar index, which tracks its value against majors, currently trading at lows below 99.00, representing a 0.60% decline on the day, having dropped 1.47% and 0.82% on Thursday and Wednesday, respectively. The greenback continued selling bias could be depressed U.S. labor market official data released Thursday, which showed the initial jobless claims topped 3.2 million last week, beating the forecast for 1.5 million by a big margin. Support Resistance 1.1051 1.1073 1.1044 1.1087 1.1022 1.1108 Pivot Point 1.1065 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD pair has made some nice bullish recovery overnight, as the total number of cases in the U.S. has crossed over the number of cases in China. Traders are in a panic and have started selling the U.S. dollar, which is driving the bullish trend in the EUR/USD currency pair. We may see EUR/USD heading towards the next resistance level of 1.1170 once it manages to violate the 1.1060 resistance level. On the lower side, 1.0985 persists the strong support and has the potential to keep the EUR/USD bullish today. During the early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and got some support from the broad-based U.S. Dollar weakness. However, the GBP/USD failed to hold above the 1.2300 level, mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the U.K. The Brexit uncertainty also keeps the pair below the 1.2300 level. At the press time, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2271 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2132 - 1.2306. Whereas, the traders await the U.S. House votes on the COVID-19 aid Bill for fresh direction. The United States cases crossed China figures of more than 81,000 virus cases and reached on the top of the list. On the other hand, the U.K. reported the highest single-day rise in the death toll by 103 to 578 yesterday. At the Brexit front, the report came that the strong disputes between the United Kingdom and European Union regarding the Brexit talks that are already seen on the strong holding track for now while another report came that the United Kingdom will not be involved in European Union struggle for ventilators in the wake of Brexit. Support Resistance 1.2235 1.2281 1.2217 1.2309 1.217 1.2355 Pivot Point 1.2263 The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate below 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2300, as most of the traders seem to feel hesitant to take major positions ahead of the weekend. The economic outlook remains neutral, so the major focus will remain on the technical side of the market. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD is facing double top resistance at 1.2263, and closing of candles below this level are suggesting odds of selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, have started are in the overbought zone, which supports the chances of correction in the pair. The cable may find support around 1.2090, and below this, the next support stays around 1.1985. Let's look for selling trades above 1.2263. Good luck!
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