Daily F.X. Analysis, April 01 – U.S. & Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI In Highlight!
By Eaglefx On April 01, 2020 in Daily Market Analysis
On Tuesday, widened the ability of many international central banks to locate dollars through the coronavirus crisis by empowering them to switch their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities for dollar loans. With this, the demand for U.S. dollar soars, driving the competitive securities lower.
The market will be focusing on the U.S. ADP Employment Report, and the ISM Manufacturing data are also scheduled to release in this day later. Let's take a look.
Economic Calendar
BTC/USD - Daily Analysis
The BTC/USD ended the 1st quarter of 2020 in a bearish mode when compared with the start of the year. However, it's not as bad as the historical losses experienced by worldwide equities. On a 24-hour footing, BTC/USD was in exhibiting bullish momentum along with ETH/USD, which also edged higher slightly. The BTC/USD price levels up to the $6,500 but lack bullish momentum to maintain profits towards the next resistance level of $7,000.
Most of the technical indicators follow in support of the bulls who look forth to a growing triangle breakout to $8,000 mark. The BTC/USD price bearish action over the weekend covered the substantial support at $5,800, averting potential losses to $5,000.
On Monday overcame several resistance levels, including $6,200 and $6,400. BTC/USD also stepped above the key $6,500 zone but formed an intraday high at $6,525. The largest cryptocurrency has adjusted downwards to trade at $6,442. Intriguingly, the trend remains strongly bullish, but the volatility is low due to reduced trading volume.
BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
6,174 6,747
5,801 6,946
5,228 7,519
Pivot Point 6,374
BTC/USD – Daily Forecast
As we anticipated, the BTC/USD prices traded bearishly below a strong resistance level of 6,533. Closing of candles below this level are driving selling bias for the Bitcoin, and its prices can drop to 6,235 area. Violation of this level can lead to Bitcoin prices further lower until the next support level of 5,975. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 6,530 level can break Bitcoin prices higher towards 6,880 level. Overall, the trend is likely to stay bearish below 6,880 level.
EUR/USD – Pair Droopd Below 1.10 Level Amid Fresh Greenback Recovery
Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to flash red and still considered bearish despite the recovery from the lowest level of 1.0930 to 1.1039. However, the currency pair failed to continue its notable recovery mainly due to traders are preferring to buy the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven demand.
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1023 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1006 - 1.1039. Although, the traders are cautious about placing any bid ahead of German retail sales and manufacturing data. By the way, the currency pair representing 0.15% declines on the day.
The EUR/USD currency pair faced rejection near 1.0940 during the early Asian trading session and stepped back near 1.010 level even though China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which concentrates on small and medium-sized export-oriented units, ignored past expectations to indicate fresh development in the activity in March.
The German data, which is scheduled at 06:00 GMT, is expected to show consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, increased 1.5% year-on-year in February, after January's 1.8% growth. Whereas, the Markit Manufacturing PMI figure is forecasted to show in at 45.5, highlighting a slight decline from the preliminary estimate of 45.7. An unexpectedly weaker data may draw offers for the common currency, pushing EUR/USD pair to levels below 1.10.
EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1002 1.1099
1.0958 1.1151
1.0862 1.1247
Pivot Point 1.1054
EUR/USD – Daily Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020, right above an intraday pivot point level of 1.1002. Closing of candles above this level can keep the EUR/USD prices bullish until 1.1052 and 1.1095. Conversely, the bearish breakout of the 1.1002 level can lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next support area of 1.0975 and 1.0934. Choppy sessions are expected until the release of NFP figures on Friday.
GBP/USD - Escalating Coronavirus Concerns
The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and dropped below the 1.2400 level once again, mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) concerns. As well as, the fears of a double-digit drop in U.S. Q2 2020 GDP also weighing on the risk sentiment, which eventually attributed to the pairs declines. At the press time, the GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2380 and consolidate in the range between the 1.2364 - 1.2443.
The United Kingdom's death toll rose sharply by 27% due to the coronavirus. The 14% increase in the cases of infected people by the virus. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom's policymakers continue to struggle in order to justify their efforts in ending the virus outbreak, although the official figures showed that confirmed coronavirus cases had increased 14% during Monday and Tuesday to 25,150 as of Tuesday at 0800 GMT. On the other hand, the coronavirus cases continue to rise in Europe, with Spain and Italy reporting a total of 200,000 cases so far.
The U.K. police are facing a very stricter order to make sure that the lockdown works as planned because of the sharp rise in death toll and cases so far. The Health Secretary Tim Hancock stated that Hospitals should use additional laboratory space to quickly test NHS staff in England for coronavirus who are self-isolating. Whereas, the advice appeared when the government was facing heavy criticism about a shortage of testing for frontline staff.
As we already mentioned that the concerns of a double-digit reduction in the U.S. Q2 2020 GDP weighed on the market's risk-tone during the early Asian session.
GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2319 1.2444
1.2256 1.2505
1.2131 1.263
Pivot Point 1.238
GBP/USD – Daily Forecast
The GBP/USD soared to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling.
At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling a pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level.
The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!