Daily FX Analysis, Sep 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - UK GDP on Radar

On Monday, the dollar was restricted to a tight range versus the yen as traders considered the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts against their demand for safe-haven assets. 

The U.S. Labor Department announced that the economy scored 130,000 non-farm payrolls in August (vs +160,000 expected, +159,000 in July) and the jobless rate was steady at 3.7% (as expected).

U.S. government bond rates rose following the report that non-farm payroll addition was smaller than anticipated. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 1.552% from 1.569% Thursday.

Economic Calendar - U.K.'s GDP Figures Ahead 

BTC/USD - Daily Forecast

The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) lower, but mostly keeping it's trading sideways within a wide trading range of 10,650 - 9,500. The pair continues to eye $11,000, with mostly registering minor gains on the day. The recent move from $9,350 to $10,800 brought Bitcoin price beyond the 50-day MA. Earlier, it was bound within the 50 and 100 days MA. 

As BTC made a big run at $11,000, a spike in bear volume broke BTC, but buyers walked in and swallowed the dump. BTC is maintaining the range it’s been in for the last week, and $10,500 now acts as resistance whereas previously it functioned as support. 

Technically, the BTCUSD is likely to go after 9,820 levels, but before this, we may experience a slight bullish retracement in Bitcoin. 

The RSI and Stochastics, both of the leading indicators have entered the selling zone; in fact, it's entering the oversold zone now. Investors seem to have done doing profit takings; we may experience a continuation of a bullish trend now.

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

10,055.76   10,785.19

9,768.66     11,227.52

9,039.23      11,956.95

Pivot Point 10,498.09

 BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

Bitcoin could drop below the 20MA at $10,167. This could lead to a pullback to $9,469-$9,350, which would be a full retrace of last week’s action. 

EUR/USD – Completes 38.2% Retracement Completed 

he EUR/USD currency pair is sidelined near the ten-day moving average of 1.1027 and having failed to hit the Moving Average line during the last two tradings days, mainly due to German trade data.

The German data which is due to release at 06:00GMT is expected to release the exports or outbound shipments fell by 0.5 month on month during the July, after a decline of 0.1% during the June. Besides this, imports or inbound shipments are marked decreasing by 0.3% in July, and During June having increased by 0.5%.

Germany's Trade Balance s.a. (Jul) is anticipated to decline to €17.5B from €18.1B.

Therefore, the decline in exports would not be surprised. Even because of Germany's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has declined to a 7-year low during the month of July, mainly due to the high drop in export orders since 2009.

However, the shared currency may come under pressure if came the unexpected decline in German imports increasing worries of recession in the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse. In short, weak imports is a big reason for the broader consumption recession.

It should be noted that the European Central Bank is awaited to device the rate cut and announce another serious of bond-buying. The dovish expectations would only increase with weak German data.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.1012       1.1049

1.0997       1.1072

1.096         1.111

Pivot Point 1.1035

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD has completed bearish retracement at 1.1030 and even soared higher to 1.1038. Now, the oversold currency pair is likely to face profit takings. EUR/USD faces the initial hurdle at the 1.1074/84 bands, where align last week’s top and the 21-day SMA. A rebound beyond this area should open the door for a test of key resistance line, today at 1.1132. Let's stay bullish above 1.1035 today

GBP/USD - 23.2% Fibonacci Retracement, What's Next? 

On Monday, the British Pound continues to trade sideways within a narrow trading range of 1.2250 - 1.2330. The pair has completed 23.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2250 but didn't trade much after that as investors await UK PM Boris Johnson meeting with the Irish PM Varadkar later.

Before his meeting with the Irish PM Varadkar today in Dublin, the British PM Boris Johnson came out on the lines, remarking that “we will bring forward other ideas to address the complexity of the Irish border”.

On the technical front, the Cable is trading slightly bullish after placing a low around 1.2249. The big Doji candles which has closed above 1.2249 is suggesting odds of a bullish reversal. Whereas, the RSI and Stochastics are staying in the oversold zone, demonstrating bullish bias is looming around the corner.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2264      1.233

1.2238      1.237

1.2171       1.2436

Pivot Point 1.2304

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD is likely to exhibit bearish trend until 1.2250, the 23.6% Fibo level and continuation of this can extend sell-off until 1.2200. I will be looking to take a sell position below 1.2320 to target at least 1.22750 today. 

All the best for Monday.