Daily F.X. Analysis, Oct 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Ahead! 

A day before, the U.S. dollar fell to a one-week low versus the bucket of peers over worries regarding global economic slowdown. Sellers mostly appeared in response to a sharp decline in U.S. manufacturing activity which hike concerns over the economic growth and if further rate cuts are needed to accommodate the slowing economy.

Besides, the United States and China have previously increased tariffs on each other's goods which is also fueling the risk of recession and generated significant central banks to loosen monetary policy. 

Besides this, the possibility that Europe will answer in kind to U.S. tariffs is anticipated to promote concerns that global extension is set for an extended duration of stagnation.

Economic Calendar -  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

On the fundamental side, a Russian scientist has undergone a penalty for mining Bitcoin at a private atomic facility. Denis Baykov has been directed to give 450K rubles or approximately $6.9K for his engagement in the project. The event is the second of its class proclaimed this year. Beginning in 2019, scientists at a Ukrainian atomic energy plant were discovered to be practicing its equipment to mine Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price is trading neutral, adding around +89.9 dollars or +1.09% during the Asian session. The BTC/USD is trading above 8,190 level, which is extending reliable support while the 50 periods EMA is continuing resistance at 8,400. 

The bearish breakout under $8,000 can prolong selling till $7,900. The relative strength index (RSI) is staying in the buy zone, suggesting higher chances of bullish reversals. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

7,727.14 8,447.94

7,372.57 8,814.17

6,651.77 9,534.97

Pivot Point 8,093.37

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD continues to hold below an immediate resistance level of 8580. The inside up candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe is still signaling odds of bullish reversal in the BTC/USD. Today, the BTC/USD may trade bullish above below8100 to target 8,500. Where the violation of 8,500 can lead BTCUSD towards 8,725 area.

EUR/USD – German Unity Day

On Thursday, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0958, losing just -0.0001 or -0.00% until now. Yesterday, the single currency jumped slightly during the U.S. trading session after initially dropping on Wednesday.

The bullish bias has been seen in the EUR/USD as traders continue to see the 1.09 level, which gained much attention. Traders, most of the buying seen in the EUR/USD was due to the weaker dollar amid worse than expected ADP NFP data.

The global economic slowdown and the U.S. China trade war seems to place its impact on the U.S. labor market. The U.S. biggest payroll data provider, the ADP, reported the U.S. had scored 135K new employments in September. 

Well, it's not a good sign for the U.S. economy as the average of the last three months is 145K a month, falling from 214K a year ago. It's fueling the sentiment that the U.S. Fed may need to cut interest rates further in order to accommodate the drop in economic performance. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0895 1.0954

1.0872 1.099

1.0814 1.1049

Pivot Point 1.0931

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD has already crossed the above the double top resistance level of 1.0945 to test the next resistance level of 1.0966. Now we may see some profit-taking in the EUR/USD below 1.0966, and the pair can drop to 1.0944 before taking further bullish trends.

GBP/USD - Sideways Range Remains Intact

The British Pound proceeds to struggle back and forth versus the greenback as we have noticed considerable choppiness encompassing the 1.2250 level. This is a field that was critical in the past, so it should not be a massive shock that it gets into action now. By taking a look at the chart, it seems as if we are attempting to create enough consolidation movement to trigger the next significant movement.

As discussed earlier, the primary reason behind bullish bias in the GBP/USD has been the worse than expected ADP figures. It seems like the global economic retardation, and the U.S. China trade conflict has already started impacting the U.S. economic events, and here's the first one. 

According to ADP, the U.S. had scored 135K new employments in September, which is way less than the figure it used to be three months ago. The average of the last three months is 145K a month, falling from 214K a year ago.

Lastly, the British construction division persisted stubbornly clung in a downturn. Since April 2009, the building project collapsed at the second-fastest pace, only nearly outpaced by June's slump. A historic sheer decrease in new orders was also recorded, while companies cut employment at the quickest rate since the ending of 2010 amid inadequate demand, client uncertainty, and faint confidence.

With that being said, the Construction PMI figure slipped to 43.3 versus the 45.0 during the previous month. It's also keeping the Sterling under pressure as the BOE may need to do something to support the economy.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2242 1.234

1.2186 1.2381

1.2088 1.2479

Pivot Point 1.2283

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD hasn't changed much as it continues to face stiff resistance at 1.2330 level, which is extended by the double top and bearish trendline resistance. On the lower side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2230, whereas the bullish breakout can lead the cable towards 1.2370. The bearish bias dominates today.

All the best for today.