Daily F.X. Analysis, November 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - Eyes on ECB Minutes Today

On Thursday, the traders' focus stays on the ECB policy meeting minutes, which is due later in the European session. Overall, the market traded risk-off sentiment amid an increased level of uncertainty coming from the U.S. China trade war. 

The increased uncertainty and tension regarding trade war and U.S. interference in China & Hong Kong have dragged down the riskier assets, which include the EUR/USD pair. The pair seemed to move in a Bearish trend on Wednesday amid increased uncertainty.

Economic Calendar - Eyes on ECB Minutes Today

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended to move around its immediate critical support at $8,000, and both, buyers and sellers, have outlived deadlocked as it fails to exhibit any particular trend in the time since its fresh drop down to its prevailing price levels.

Traders are now seeing that Bitcoin is presently trading at a critical trendline that could impact its near-term price action, with a violation beneath it, possibly leading to further losses.

The BTC/USD continues to trade above the psychological support level of $8,000. As we can see in the hourly chart, the BTC/USD fell below $8,000 mark to place a low of $7,960. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

8,586.2         9,134.95

8,354.76       9,452.26

7,806.01    10,001.01

Pivot Point 8,903.51

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The technical side of the BTC/USD hasn't changed much due to a lack of trading activity in the leading crypto pair. The Bitcoin continues to trade above the psychological support level of $8,000, while the crucial resistance stays at 8,165. 

In between these levels, the BTC/USD can exhibit choppy trading sessions until the breakout determines its next movement. Since bearish bias remains strong, the next support is likely to be found around $7,700. In case the BTC/USD breaks above 8,165, we may see the next resistance around 8,275 and 8,346.

EUR/USD – ECB Meeting Minutes In Highlights  

The EUR/USD closed at 1.10723 after placing a high of 1.10813 and low of 1.10530. Overall the movement of the pair remained Bearish that day.

At 12:00 GMT, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) for October was dropped to -0.2% from previous months' 0.1% and weighed on single currency Euro. The poor Producer Price Index from Germany gave impressions of weak German Economy and weighed on EUR/USD on Wednesday.

On the news front, the Euro and rest of riskier assets were under pressure due to heightened trade tightness between the United States & China, and the Bill passed by U.S. Senate related to Hong Kong. After the U.S. Senate passed the Act of Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy on Tuesday, the relationship between U.S. & China relating to Trade could further deteriorate. 

The increased uncertainty and tension regarding trade war and U.S. interference in China & Hong Kong have dragged down the riskier assets, which include the EUR/USD pair. The pair was seemed to move in Bearish trend on Wednesday amid increased uncertainty.

After the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the EUR/USD pair started to move in the upward direction but failed to maintain a bullish candle for Wednesday. Minutes suggested that most members of the Federal Reserve believed that they were done lowering interest rates. 

The decreased likelihood of fourth Interest Rate Cut this year caused a sudden spike in the prices of EUR/USD on Wednesday and helped the pair to recover some of its losses. But this was highly expected and was not new in the eyes of traders so, Traders started to ignore FOMC meeting minutes, and the upward trend for EUR/USD was jeopardized. As a result, EUR/USD ended its Wednesday with a Bearish Candle. 

Later this week, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes and PMI would be under focus by traders to set the direction for this pair. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.1054       1.109

1.1036       1.1108

1.1              1.1144

Pivot Point 1.1072

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD is likely to consolidate in a sideways trading range of 1.1085 - 1.1055. The bullish breakout of 1.1085 may lead the EUR/USD towards 1.1090 and 1.1115 level. Whereas, the violation of 1.1055 can drive further sell-off until 1.1035 today. 

The movement in the EUR/USD mostly depends upon the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes, which are due to come out during the European session today. Besides, the leading indicators such as MACD and RSI are suggesting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA.

GBP/USD -  Bullish Trendline Supports 

The pair GBP/USD closed at 1.29215 after placing a high of 1.29300 and low of 1.28868. Overall the GBP/USD pair showed Null movement that day.

In a televised election debate on Tuesday, PM Boris Johnson and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn attacked each other's policies on the Economy, health care, and Brexit. Both parties seemed to fail to answer the question of voters why they should trust any of them.

 In an hourlong encounter, both politicians focused on their rival's weaknesses, and when tricky questions about their policy were asked, they sidestepped quietly. The debate was the first-ever head to head T.V. debate between British PM and his challenger.

After the debate, the poll showed that the public was split over the decision that who was the victor. The poll suggested that 51% of voters were with PM Johnson, and 49% were with Corbyn. 

Elections are due on December 12, and Johnson has promised to leave Europe on January 31. He has been using this message to end Brexit crises quickly throughout his election campaign. As the debate could not provide a clear view of Public from Poll, the single currency Pound was not affected by the debate. And with no macroeconomic release on Wednesday from the United Kingdom, the pair GBP/USD was left with U.S. news & data.

In the starting session on Wednesday, GBP/USD showed a drop, and after the release of FOMC October's Meeting minutes, the pair started to move in an upward direction. Minutes include information on holding interest rates and monetary policy for the time being. 

The upward movement was almost equal to the drop in the earlier session on Wednesday, and hence, the pair ended its trading day candle at the point where it started and showed almost zero movements for the day.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2901       1.296

1.2876       1.2995

1.2816       1.3055

Pivot Point 1.2935

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD traded mostly as per previous levels, placing a slow of around 1.2887 level but managed to conclude the 4-hour candle above 1.2880 resistance become support level. The 50 periods RSI also supported the pair around 1.2880 level. Besides, the GBP/USD formed tweezers bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish reversal in the Cable. 

Hence, the GBP/USD may trade bullish above 1.2900 level. The pair may face immediate resistance around 1.2930, and the bullish breakout of this may lead the Cable towards 1.2975 level today.

All the best for today.