Daily F.X.Analysis, May 15 – Braces for European GDP & Retail Sales In Focus! 

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that a strong U.S. dollar would be very helpful in the recovery phase after coronavirus. Furthermore, the pair failed to benefit from German's better than expected Inflation data from April. Investors were more concerned about the Eurozone's largest economy, whose inflation was continuously falling below from the ECB's target.

Economic Calendar     

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD price abruptly dropped fell by 5.11% to $9,256 before rallying to trade in the $9,500 range. This followed a prior sudden decline on Thursday after BTC casually reached $10K to fill the CME futures gap.

The BTC/USD figures showed that beginning in the day, the price climbed to $9,939, and the exhibition's consolidation of higher lows and lower highs induced some traders that further bullish trend continuation up to $10K. 

This change came roughly after an extensive period of sloping trading within the $8,000 ranges, and the bullish commitment to this consolidation has caused many analysts to target a move back up to BTC's yearly highs of nearly $10,500, but before it could target 10K market, we saw a dip in the market. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

9,395        10,071

8,995       10,347

8,719        10,747

Pivot Point 9,671

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD prices exhibited serious losses after having surged to 9,900 levels during the U.S. session. For now, the pair is testing support around 9,200 level, which is extended by the upward trendline, which can be seen on the hourly timeframe. Bounce of above this level can keep Bitcoin supported over 9,350 level while resistance hold at 9600. The 50 EMA and RSI, both are supporting bullish bias in the Bitcoin. Correction can be seen below 9,365 level today, while bullish breakout will drive buying unto 9,602.

EUR/USD – German Prelim GDP q/q

The EUR/USD prices were closed at 1.08040 after placing a high of 1.08238 and a low of 1.07746. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair gained in early American session and moved above 1.0800 level but failed to post gains and started to fell to post daily losses. The primary driver of EUR/USD pair on Thursday seemed to be the U.S. dollar's market valuation.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that a strong U.S. dollar would be very helpful in the recovery phase after coronavirus. Furthermore, the pair failed to benefit from German's better than expected Inflation data from April. Investors were more concerned about the Eurozone's largest economy, whose inflation was continuously falling below from the ECB's target.

AT 11:00 GMT, the German Final CPI showed a rise of 0.4% in the month of April against the expected 0.3% and supported EUR. The German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for April showed a decline of -1.4% against the forecasted -0.3%and weighed on single currency Euro. At 13:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for March was reported as 5.69B against the 6.09B of February.

Meanwhile, Euro was also dropped because of the renewed fears of second-wave of coronavirus after new cases of virus patients emerged in Europe. Any further signs of rising cases within Europe would increase the anxiety over Eurozone's economy, which would end up having stricter lockdown throughout the bloc.

On the news front, France disclosed a plan of 18 Billion euros worth in order to support its tourism sector, which has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result of lockdown, the beaches, leisure attractions, and hotels in France were closed, which has badly affected the tourist industry. Nearly 90 million foreign tourists visited France last year and made France the most visited country of the year. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0778      1.0829

1.0751      1.0853

1.0727      1.088

Pivot Point 1.0802

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast 

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0811, holding above the pivot point support level of 1.0802. A bearish breakout of 1.0802 level may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next support area of 1.07630, which marks the double bottom level. Below this, future support holds around 1.0725. Conversely, resistance holds approximately 1.0842. The RSI is holding below 50, which is keeping the EUR/USD in a bearish mode while the 50 EMA is also suggesting odds of selling trend in the EUR/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.0842 today, while buying can also be seen above this level today.

GBP/USD - Downward Channel In-Play

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.22362 after placing a high of 1.23396 and a low of 1.22100. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair refreshed its daily tops around 1.234 in early trading session but dropped again to post losses for 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday after the speech of Jerome Powell.

On the back of better than expected GDP data from the United Kingdom, Pound gained strength against the U.S. dollar in the early North American Session but started to lose traction after the Fed Chair gave comments on the U.S. economy.

At 11:00 GMT, the Prelim GDP for the quarter showed a decline of -2.0% against the forecasted value of -2.6% and supported GBP. The GDP for the month dropped by -5.8% in March against the expected -7.9% and supported the Pound.

The Construction Output for March dropped by -5.9% against the forecasted drop of -7.1% and supported GBP. The Index of Services also came in favor of GBP after falling for -1.9% against the expectations of -2.5%. 

At 11:02 GMT, the Manufacturing Production for the month of March from the U.K. showed a decline of -4.6% against the expected decline by -6.0% and supported Sterling. The Goods Trade Balance from the United Kingdom showed a deficit of -12.5B against the forecasted deficit of -10.0B and weighed on Sterling.

The Industrial Production for the month of March declined by -4.2% against the forecasted -5.5% and supported Pound. The Prelim Business Investment for the quarter was dropped to 0.0% against the expected -3.0% and supported British Pound.

Most of the data came in favor of Pound and pushed the GBP/USD pair prices on Wednesday in early trading sessions. However, the gains of the GBP/USD pair started to lose after the speech of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. On data front from the United States, the U.S. dollar remains depressed due to poor than expected PPI data for April, which fell more than the expectations. However, its effect was not lasting as the speech from Powell on the current economic situation came in under the eyes of traders.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2182       1.2259

1.2135       1.2289

1.2105      1.2335

Pivot Point 1.2212

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD is consolidating at 1.2216, maintaining a downward channel on the 4-hour timeframe. The bearish trend of the GBP/USD is still dominant as it's holding below 50 EMA, which is extending resistance at 1.2300. The GBP/USD is holding below the daily pivot point level of 1.226, which is suggesting odds of Cable's selling trend. However, the bullish breakout of 1.226 level may extend buying until 1.231 and 1.2391. The RSI and 50 EMA are suggesting the chances of a selling bias today. On the lower side, the GBP/USD prices are likely to find support at around 1.2179 and 1.2132. Let's look for selling trades below 1.226 and buying above the same level today. 

Good luck!