Daily F.X. Analysis, May 07 – U.S. Unemployment Claims In Focus - Brace for Price Action! 

The US dollar traded higher on Thursday morning in Asia due to uncertainty surrounding the market. However, the gold has lost its $1,700 level because the dollar index hit the above high 100s in the wake of increased safe-haven demand. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies increased 0.05% to 100.185 by 11:28 AM ET (4:28 AM GMT) as investors looked to the dollar as a safe-haven. Let's wait for Jobless Claims now. 

Economic Calendar     

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The Bitcoin prices showed a slight bears correction, but the overall trading range remains the same around 9,311. Before this, the BTC/USD price gained back a significant portion of its losses from Sunday's weekly close retracement, and figures show that within a previous hour, the leading cryptocurrency has remained below the $9K mark again. 

After allocating the last few days battling to keep prices over the $9,000 resistance, Bitcoin price caused a strong movement by climbing to $9,380 on Wednesday morning. The 3.65% move caught a place on a high volume wave, but the price immediately pulled backward to $9,126 before moving higher to $9,395 at the time of writing.

With just four days and 16 hours left before the Bitcoin halving, investors will be carefully watching to see if the top-ranked crypto-asset on can push above the $9,500 resistance to reach $10,000. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

8,910         9,395

8,674         9,644

8,425         9,880

Pivot Point 9,159

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD prices dipped to test the support level of 9,040, which is mostly extended upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. The BTC/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which may keep the Bitcoin under pressure below 9,415 level. While break out of this range will further define the market movement; however, below 9K, the BTC/USD can remain exposed to the 50 EMA, which is likely to support it around 8,615. 

EUR/USD – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green but still trading below the 1.08 level, having dropped for the 3-consecutive day on Wednesday. Whereas, the three-day decline has exposed key trendline support located near 1.0760. However, the currency pair is looking flat near below 1.08 ahead of the ahead of German Industrial Production. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0797 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0792 - 1.0805.

At the data front, the German data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT is expected to show that Industrial Production dropped by 7.5% month-on-month in March, after February's 0.3% growth. 

It should be noted that the IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing dropped to 45.4 in March, which clearly indicating the sharpest decline in manufacturing production since April 2009. German factory orders fell by 15.6% in March as compared to the previous month. 

According to the forecast, the Industrial Production may face a sharp decline in March. While, the negative figures in the activity will not be surprised to market, as the March month faced a heavy crisis due to coronavirus pandemic while the market is well aware of this. As well as, the coronavirus pandemic also forced Italy, Spain, Germany, and other nations to halt production lines. Therefore, the data figures could fail to entertain the EUR pairs buyers.

All of the above factors added to the weakness of EUR against the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair in a bearish trend. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was also on a strong note after the release of ADP Non-Farm Payroll data, which showed results better than expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

The decline in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in less than the expectations during the month of April. The expected number of jobless claims was 20500K, and the actual number came in as 20236K.

Weak EUR and strong U.S. dollar dragged the pair EUR/USD for 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0768       1.0834

1.0741       1.0875

1.0701       1.0901

Pivot Point 1.0808

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0793, having violated the intraday pivot point support level of 1.0808. A bearish breakout of 1.0808 level can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.07630, which marks 78.6% Fibonacci level. Below this, the next support stays around 1.0725. On the higher side, resistance holds around 1.0864. The RSI is holding below 50, which is keeping the EUR/USD in a bearish mode while the 50 EMA is also suggesting odds of selling trend in the EUR/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.0808 today. 

GBP/USD - Fibonacci In-play

The GBP/USD currency pair breaks its early-day consolidation range and hit the new session high near the 1.2375 level, mainly after the BOE decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. As well as, the easing lockdowns in the United Kingdom also keeps the currency pair supportive. 

Earlier in the morning, the currency pair extended its recent rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA and dropped to two-week lows but succeded to find support just ahead of the 1.2300 round-figure marks. The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2363 and consolidates in 1.2310 - 1.2377.

As per the new BOE report, the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the interest rate on hold at 0.10%, whereas maintaining the Q.E. program at GBP645 billion. 

It should be noted that the Bank of England normally publishes the Bank of England BOE Interest Rate Decision. If the BoE is aggressive about the inflationary outlook of the economy and increases the interest rates, it is seen as positive, or bullish, for the British Pound. Whereas, if the BoE has a dovish outlook on the U.K. economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as bearish for the GBP.

In the meantime, the two-BoE members voted for a £100 billion increase to the Q.E. program. Whereas, the unimportantly dovish vote distribution was dominated on the latest positive report by the UK PM Boris Johnson about partially re-open the economy from Monday.

Any optimism related to the economic outlook, even if limited, could boost the GBP/USD and vise versa. On the other hand, the trade deal between the United Kingdom and the United States is on the table of talks after the Brexiters made a convincing argument that membership with E.U. was holding back the U.K. from making more profitable deals with potential trading partners around the world. 

The trade talks between the U.S. & U.K. are being held via videoconferencing due to coronavirus lockdown. Furthermore, the UK-US deal could pose a threat to the competitiveness of the European Union, and there are chances that E.U. would agree on some of U.K.'s demands of a post-Brexit deal to avoid such a threat.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2301       1.2417

1.226         1.2492

1.2185       1.2534

Pivot Point 1.2376

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD is entering into a selling zone below 50 EMA resistance at 1.2450 and below the pivot point level of 1.2376. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD has violated the intraday pivot point support level of 1.2376, which is now weighing on the Cable. On the lower side, the Cable is likely to find support around 1.2309 and 1.2249. 

Considering the RSI and 50 EMA are suggesting chances of selling bias until 1.230 and 1.2249. On the higher side, the GBP/USD prices are likely to find resistance around 1.2470 and 1.2515. Let's look for selling trades below 1.2427 today. 

Good luck!