Daily F.X. Analysis, February 26 – U.S. New Home Sales In Highlights

On Wednesday, the greenback dollar sustained losses as growing expectations of a U.S. rate decrease and threats from U.S. health administrators regarding the spread of the coronavirus called into the subject. It seems to the strength of U.S. financial assets as investors are avoiding Euro since the Italy issue. 

On the fundamental side, eyes will remain on the U.S. Consumer confidence data, which may trigger some buying in the U.S. dollar today. Overall, the market is again likely to follow technical trading levels.

Economic Calendar  

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis 

The BTC/USD bearish leg continues under $9,100 following support at $9,500 was broken. A potential double-bottom pattern could shortly lead the BTC/USD towards $10,000.

Following the shattering of the critical support at $9,500, sellers' morale fired up amazingly. Previous week's support at $9,300 seemed to accommodate very little to prevent the energized bearish lot. 

The BTC/USD continued the bearish leg to $9,090 (daily low). The price is trading bearish, falling by 1.84% towards the conclude the Asian session. Whereas, an attempt to pull the price upwards has scored a significant barrier at $9,200. Alternatively, BTC/USD is switching hands at $9,142 while the trend continues to lead to the south, perhaps, in the wake of a stronger dollar.

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

9,449.46      9,802.61

9,292.61      9,998.91

8,939.46    10,352.06

Pivot Point 9,645.76 

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD continues to trade in a bearish mode at 9,095. Today, the leading pair is testing the double bottom support level of 9092, and the breakout of this level on the lower side has the potential to open further room for selling until 8,850. 

Whereas, previously violated upward channel may extend resistance at 9,415. The overall bias is bearish, but let's keep an eye on 9,090 support level as it will determine further trends.

EUR/USD – German Final GDP q/q

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly recovered and struggling to confirm the bullish trend, having hit the high of 1.890 because the risk market is recovering moderately. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0867 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0863 - 1.0884. As we know, the currency pair dropped sharply from the high of 1.1096 to low of 1.0778 on February 20 after coronavirus fears increased.

Such as the options market data shows the low volatility trend in EUR/USD pair has ended, and the demand for put bearish bets has declined sharply in the last five days. 

The one-month ATM volatility, which measures the calculated or implied mid-rate volatility for an at-the-money (ATM) option, has increased to 5.625, the highest level since October 3. The volatility measure has surged in a v-shaped manner from lows near 3.60 seen at the end of January. Besides, the EUR/USD currency pair gaining some poise mainly due to risk-on market sentiment in the wake of eased fears of coronavirus. 

One-month risk reversals increased to -0.125 on Tuesday, having bottomed out at -0.55 on February 18. The surge represents a drop in demand or intended volatility premium for the put options. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0844     1.0905

1.0807     1.0928

1.0747     1.0988

Pivot Point 1.0867

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD is recovering on the daily chart, and it seems to go after a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.08900. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD is likely to stay supported over 1.0850 as it has crossed over 50 periods EMA, which indicates odds of a bullish trend in the direct currency pair. On the higher side, the next resistances are likely to be 1.0935 and 1.0970.

GBP/USD - Bearish Trendline Breakout

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and rose slightly on the U.S. Dollar weakness but still trading below the 1.3000 handles. At this moment, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2990 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2982 - 1.3013. For now, all eyes on coronavirus headlines and will remain under the trader's radars until the U.K. and E.U. trade talks are finalized. Moreover, the U.K. budget will take the driver seats next month.

The market traders are hugely distracted from the matter regarding Brexit as the coronavirus headlines are taking up the driver seats. The virus is hitting all corners of the world, which is why we see muted movements on Brexit news.

As per the latest report of coronavirus, the coronavirus hitting more nations now. Croatia, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, and Austria have also reported their first cases of the virus while Italy remains a significant concern. Italy has confirmed 322 cases of the illnesses, the Italian civil protection agency said Tuesday. That's the highest number of coronavirus infections outside Asia. Consequently, few of the E.U. governments are advising to ban traveling to infected regions. The E.U. has made EUR195m available to help fight the crisis. Traffic data for Milan for the last week is showing a decline in passenger movement against the 2019 average.

A statement came from the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida that officials are struggling to monitor the emergency of the coronavirus, which is expected to have a striking impact on the Chinese growth, especially in the 1st quarter of this year. He further added that it's still too soon to even think about the size of coronavirus effects, as these are likely to make the material changes in the outlook.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2949     1.304

1.2893     1.3074

1.2802     1.3165

Pivot Point 1.2984

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD continues to maintain a sideways trading range of 1.2980, and it's testing the pivot point level of 1.2984. Above this level, the pair has the potential to go after the next resistance level of 1.3060 as the 50 periods EMA and RSI are in favor of a bullish bias. 

The Cable has also violated the downward trendline resistance at 1.2970, which is now likely to underpin the GBP/USD pair today. Let's consider staying bullish above 1.2980 to target 1.3060 while selling can be taken below 1.2965 to a target of 1.2900. 

Good luck!