Daily F.X. Analysis, April 24 – Brace for Retail Sales & German Business Climate! 

The U.S. .dollar traded with a bullish bias versus the currencies of oil raisers on Thursday as a recovery in crude prices from an unexpected breakdown only partly soothed markets uncertainty by the massive coronavirus-led decline in global demand. The Euro held poised toward the greenback and the pound ahead of an of the meeting of European Union executives on the bloc's acknowledgment of the economic turbulence generated by the global coronavirus pandemic.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. retail sales, German Ifo Business Climate, and U.S. durable goods orders; however, almost all of the economic events are expected o perform worse than the previous economic data. 

Economic Calendar     

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD prices are exhibiting indications the market is more confident about the cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin prices showed some dramatic buying after the violation of the symmetric triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. 

The world's leading cryptocurrency jumped 10% on Thursday before the expiration of April CME futures. Overall the prices surged from $7,018 level to place a high of around $7,765. The BTC/USD futures contract for the month of April ended at $7,115 on Thursday. Whereas, the contract for the month of May delivery came in almost $40 above the previous price, signaling a positive outlook.

At this moment, the BTC/USD has settled back around 7,429 – a critical support level that traders seem to watch closely. It will be interesting to see how traders respond to this level in the days ahead as a violation of this could trigger selling until 7,200 and even until 7,090 levels. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

7,091       7,824

6,696      8,163

6,357      8,557

Pivot Point 7429

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

On the 4 hour timeframe, the BTC/USD has violated the symmetric triangle pattern, which can be seen on the 4-hour timeframe. The pattern was extending resistance around 7,200 level, and since this pattern is already violated, now this resistance level of 7,200 is likely to work as support for Bitcoin. Traders will keep an eye on the intraday pivot point support level of 7,429 level today, and violation of this level on the lower side can lead to Bitcoin prices until 7,200, which also marks the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The bullish bias is likely to remain strong only if BTC/USD manages to hold above 7,430 level today.   

EUR/USD – German Ifo Business Climate Ahead

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading below a crucial trading level of 1.0792, which can be seen in the 4 hours timeframe. A day before, the Eurozone's macroeconomic numbers triggered dramatic price action for a change, although the figures revealed the outrage made by the ongoing pandemic not only on the Eurozone's but also on global economics. 

The preliminary Markit surveys for April activity dropped, and the German manufacturing index slipped sharply to 34.3 while services PMI figures reported declined to 15.9. For the whole Union, the manufacturing PMI finished at 33.6, while the services index rushed to 11.7, all historic lows. 

Besides, the German GFK Consumer Confidence figures for the month of May slipped to -23.4 versus the previous 2.7, while the ECB declared that it would take some junk-rated securities as collateral to alleviate the impact of potential rating downgrades.

The bearish trend in the EUR/USD also triggered as the E.U. leaders neglected to agree on a coronavirus recovery plan as bloc officials are at differences over how to support it. The economic bloc of 27 countries, however, did support a short-term $540 billion program to help businesses and economies from the direct fallout from the coronavirus.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0739       1.0828

1.0703      1.0881

1.065        1.0917

Pivot Point 1.0792

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

A day before, the EUR/USD violated the symmetric triangle pattern and started trading below a range of 1.0900 - 1.0800; at the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0769 area, and it has already violated the daily pivot point level of 1.0790. Below this level, the EUR/USD can drop until the next support level of 1.0720. 

As we can see in the chart above, the EUR/USD has formed a bearish

engulfing candle at 1.0790, which is likely to drive selling bias in the pair. At the same time, the 50 periods EMA and Stochastics are also crossing below 20, suggesting strong selling bias. Let's look to stay bearish below 1.0790 today with a target of 1.0720.

GBP/USD - U.S. Jobless Claims Ahead  

The Sterling originally sought to rally during the trading session yesterday, but it ended up giving back the profits to build a bit of a star-shaped shooting candlestick. We also had seen the same sort of candlestick for the last session, so I guess at this level, what we are watching at is a proclivity to sell rallies. 

For GBP, the broader view therefore means, and the near-term forecast holds on improvements in oil and stock exchanges, while for the Euro, the result of an upcoming European Council meeting on financing a coronavirus economic plan will be watched. The members of the cabinet got the chance for the first time to criticize Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Company's poor performance about managing the coronavirus crisis in the U.K. However, the members did not only criticized for the lack of medical supplies, but they also indicated the shortage of nurses.

Consequently, the deputized PM indicated the nearness to the peak of the outbreak. The Health Secretary Matt Hancock is suggesting the start of the human trials over 300,000 people in a year. Later today, eyes will remain on the Retail sales data from the U.K., which is going to help us determine further trends in the market. 

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2301 1.2408

1.2251 1.2465

1.2194 1.2515

Pivot Point 1.2358

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

On Friday, the eyes will be on the U.K. retail sales data; however, the technical side is suggesting a bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair. On the 4 hours timeframe, the GBP/USD is holding at 1.2348, right below the downward channel resistance level of 1.2368. At the same level, the Cable is also finding resistance by the 50 periods EMA. 

Closing of candles below this level means the odds of selling in the GBP/USD remain high until the next support level of 1.2215 level. Conversely, the bullish breakout of 1.2400 levels opens up further room for until next resistance level of 1.2510. 

Good luck!