Daily F.X. Analysis, April 15 – Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales and BOC Policy Decision! 

The greenback crawled lower, but gains in riskier currencies were capped as traders worried about company earnings and braced for Chinese trade data likely to show the full impact of the coronavirus health crisis on economic activity. Later today, eyes will remain on the U.S. retail sales and Canadian monetary policy decisions, which are expected to drive market movement during the U.S. session.

Economic Calendar    

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark forecast that the worldwide economic slowdown triggered by 'the great lockdown' will get much worse before it gets better.

The BTC/USD prices shifted distinctly to trade at 6,575 area, which marks as a double bottom on the 4-hour timeframe. Above this, the Bitcoin may show slight bullish correction until 6,850, but a violation of the descending triangle pattern along with bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe is supporting bearish bias among traders. Today, chances of a bearish breakout remain strong; therefore, the bearish breakout of 6,577 level can extend selling until 6,170.

BTC/USD is fighting to break above the next resistance level of $7,000 and $7,250 versus the U.S. Dollar. The bulls are gradually taking control, and they are anticipated to target $7,000. The Bitcoin failed to break the significant support level of around $6,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair could improve distinctly towards the $7,100 support or $6,800.

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

6,761        6,962.9

6,666       7,070

6,466       7,271

Pivot Point 6,868

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD prices soared to trade at 6,905 area, after falling to 6,577, the double bottom area on the 4-hour timeframe. Above this, the Bitcoin has shown slight bullish correction until the next resistance level of 7000. Today violation of 7,000 levels can extend buying until the next resistance level of 7,400. But in case of a bearish breakout, we may see BTC/USD prices dropping until 6,154 area. The trading bias remains neutral today.

EUR/USD – Support Become Resistance

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair erases some previous day gains but still trading well above the 50-day moving average at 1.0970, mainly due to continued optimism about receding coronavirus cases, especially in Europe. The better-than-expected China trade data supported the market risk-sentiment and provided support to the risk assets. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0976 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0973 - 1.0991.

By the way, the currency pair representing a moderate decline on the day, having hit a high of 1.0991 late Tuesday (UTC). That trading level was previously seen on April 1. While the pair has dropped from two-week highs, but it is still trading well above the 50-day average at 1.0964. 

Moving on, the currency pair may find further bids in European trading hours because the overall market sentiment has turned slightly risk-on this week mainly due to the ongoing improvement in the coronavirus-related numbers, especially in Europe, and better-than-expected China trade data released Tuesday. 

Moreover, the talks about the expected extending of lockdown restriction in the wake of coronavirus are gaining attention in badly damaged countries and adding to the bid tone around the risk assets. 

Wheres, the U.S. stocks recovered on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 index higher by almost 3%, while the safe-haven U.S. dollar faced losses, as indicated by the dollar index's 0.63% drop. The dollar index is trading sidelined near 98.90. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0936      1.1012

1.0887      1.104

1.0811       1.1116

Pivot Point 1.0964

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD violated the symmetric triangle pattern, and closing of candles outside, especially on the higher side of EUR/USD, may drive bullish bias in the EUR/USD currency pair. On the higher side, immediate resistance stays around 1.0960 an 1.1030. While a bullish breakout of 1.1030 resistance can lead the EUR/USD prices further higher towards 1.1135, conversely, a bearish breakout of 1.0918 can initiate a sell-off until 1.088. Today, consider buying above 1.0953 until the next resistance of 1.1039.

GBP/USD -  Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales 

During the early Asian trading hours, the GBP/USD currency failed to continue its 2-day winning streak and dropped from 5-weeks high to 1.2603, representing 0.16% losses on the day as the U.S. dollar is trying to erase its previous day declines due to the hopes of the early restart of some U.S. states. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2605 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2602 - 1.2631. However, the traders are cautious about placing any significant move ahead of the Brexit negotiations between the European Union (E.U.) and the U.K. diplomats.

The United States President Donald Trump renewed expectations that some of the U.S. states may be open for business by May 01. The Republican leader also indicates the stocks to recover and surge to the previous record highs. It's worth mentioning that the Republican leader also stopped the U.S. funding of the World Health Organization (WHO) while blaming the institute about supporting China on the wrong grounds.

At the coronavirus front, there were 93,873 virus cases in the U.K., with the death losses increasing by 778. The New York Times cited officials from the Office of National Statistics to expect the figures to be 10% higher. At the U.S. front, the report cited 25,700 deaths out of more than 600,000 known cases.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.255        1.2674

1.2475      1.2723

1.2352      1.2846

Pivot Point 1.2599

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

A day before, the GBP/USD showed bullish bias as it is price surged to trade at 1.2598 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the cable has entered the overbought zone, and at the same time, the pair has formed a bearish engulfing candle followed by a doji candle which suggests odds of selling bais in the GBP/USD currency pair. Conversely, the pair may find support around 1.2475 area today until the release of U.S. Retail Sales figures, which are due to come out during the U.S. session.

The 50 periods EMA is still supporting the bullish bias in the Sterling pair. Therefore, the support level of 1.2476 and 1.2400 may trigger a bullish bounce off in the market. So let's look for bullish positions above 1.2475 and bearish positions below 1.2599. Good luck!