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Daily F.X. Analysis, April 22 – U.K. Inflation Reports in Focus! 

Daily Market AnalysisApril 22, 2020
On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged versus a basket of major currencies as traders explored the safety of the world's most liquid currency as a fall in oil prices drained desire for risky assets. The U.S. crude oil traded into the negative zone for the first time in history on Monday, as a dramatic drop in global oil usage due to the coronavirus pandemic constitutes a supply excess and a deficiency of storage capacity. Today, the focus will remain on the UK CPI reports, let's brace for it. Economic Calendar     The Bitcoin traded with a slight bullish bias at 6,911 area after completing the Fibonacci retracement level around 6,788 level. It seems like the U.S. citizens are using a portion of their $2,000 stimulus plan in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. On Monday and Tuesday, the BTC/USD price slips from the previous week's high of $7,314, to trade at $6,750. However, the BTC/USD price grew slightly on Wednesday during the Asian session. The BTC/USD is exhibiting indications of an upside revision from the $6,761 low versus the greenback. A few major obstacles are operating around the $6,955 and $7,030 trading levels. There is a major bearish trend line building with resistance at $7,030 on the hourly timeframe of the BTC/USD. With this, the BTC/USD pair could extend trading lower towards a support area of $6,550, where the buyers are likely to emerge. Support Resistance 6,798 6,968 6,700 7,040 6,530 7,210 Pivot Point 6,870 BTC/USD – Daily Forecast On Wednesday, the Bitcoin has completed 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 6,790 level. Bitcoin seems to recover a bit as it's trading around 6,911 area after having violated the immediate resistance level of 6,870 level. At the moment, the BTC/USD pair may find support at 6,700 level as it's been extended by the upward trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 4-hour timeframe. Violation of this level can open further room for selling until 6,577 area while resistance holds around 6,920 and 7,210. Bearish bias seems dominant below the 6,920 level today. The EUR/USD currency pair looking flat and trading between the indecisive trading range around 1.0850 mainly because the agreement between the Eurozone member nations about debt mutualization still not happened ahead of the Thursday's European Union leaders' virtual-summit. The upbeat German Zew Expectations survey data failed to cheer the currency pair as the investors are still cautious due to intensifying coronavirus fears. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0848 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0844 - 1.0864. At the data front, the German Zew Expectations survey rose from 28.2 in April from March's -49.5 figures to its highest level in five-years. Whereas the impressive wave is a result of investor confidence that the economy will start to turn around in the second half because the country slowly eases restrictions. At the same time, analysts are also worried about the high ZEW reading as the economy is still unstable, and the recovery sentiment in the European nations is not clear while there are notable debt, deflation, and political risks to be navigated. Moreover, the opponent's actions about the coronabonds and fiscal integration still on the peak from the fiscally conservative nation despite the strong calls from Spain, France, and Italy. However, Europe is still not ready to deepen fiscal integration. The lack of comprehensive economic support could suffer the shared currency in further losses. Support Resistance 1.0823 1.0887 1.0788 1.0916 1.0724 1.098 Pivot Point 1.0852 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD continues to trade sideways, within a symmetric triangle pattern range of 1.0900 - 1.0800. The EUR/USD continues to trade at 1.8611, holding below the strong resistance level of 1.0885. On the upside, the next resistance stays around 1.0859 an 1.0930. On the other hand, the EUR/USD has strong odds of showing more buying above 1.0859 level, which may lead its prices towards 1.0930. Alternatively, the violation of 1.0800 level can lead EUR/USD towards the next support level of 1.0765. The downward breakout of 1.0765 can trigger a sell-off of up to 1.0725. Today, consider selling below 1.0800 and buying above this same level. During Wednesday's early Asian session, the GBP/USD failed to stop its 3-day losing streak and dropped to 1.2285 while rendering 0.07% losses on the day, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment on the back of intensifying coronavirus fears. The broad-based U.S. dollar strength also keeps the currency pair under pressure. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2298 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2274 - 1.2307. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of March month inflation data. The criticism on the Tory government about handling the coronavirus crisis increasing day by day while the Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that the government is using every possible way to produce a virus vaccine. In the meantime, the United Kingdom diplomat also discussed starting the human experiments for the pandemic vaccine and renewed self-isolation guidelines. Almost 25 doctors of the U.K. were not showing satisfaction on the 7-day social-distancing rule against the World Health Organization's (WHO) 14-day period and got the same response from the Health Secretary Hancock. Whereas, the U.K.'s death toll cross 17,366, as per the latest report on Tuesday while the Reuters reported total cases rose above 129,000. At the Brexit front, the SkyNews says that the ex-deputy PM David Lidington requests for the Brexit transition period delay. However, the UK PM Boris Johnson and the company are well known for its stability on the Brexit deadline and are expected to remain stand during the time of discussions with the European Union (E.U.). With everything going on, the Sterling is trading with a mixed bias. However, bears are taking a bit more control in the market. Support Resistance 1.2223 1.2397 1.2148 1.2496 1.1974 1.2671 Pivot Point 1.2322 The bearish trend in GBP/USD continues as the pair is trading below pivot point level 1.2322, after violating the narrow trading range of 1.2500 - 1.2400. Selling bias seems strong as the Cable has not only violated sideways channel, but also holds below 50 periods EMA which is extending resistance around 1.2400. We may experience a slight bullish recovery in the market, but the resistance level of 1.2335 is likely to hold the pair in a selling mode. Today, the GBP/USD may open further room for selling until 1.2300 and 1.2150. But in case, sterling violates 1.2325 resistance level; the market will be pone to 1.2511 resistance. Good luck!
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Daily F.X. Analysis, April 21 – Brace for German ZEW Economic Sentiment! 

Daily Market AnalysisApril 21, 2020
On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar resumed its mounting against currencies of U.S. oil yielders, as traders continued to be nervous following a historic fall in U.S. crude futures to beneath zero and shied away from risk even as the benchmark jumped back. Later in the day, eyes will be on the Eurozone Economic Sentiment figures, which will help drive movement in the Euro currency pair. Economic Calendar The Bitcoin traded with a bearish bias to trade at 6,861 area after having violated the immediate support level of 7,000 level. Americans are now spending part of their $2,000 stimulus plan in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD price slips from the previous week's high near $7,314, examining support at $6,750, although recovery is initiated, targeting $7,000. The BTC/USD price grew marginally towards the end of last week. The bullish force seemed to have been a technical breakout backed by revived enthusiasm among traders due to several factors, including the block reward halving competition coming up in May and the incentive plan that American people are receiving from the government. The stimulus plan is meant to support the residents from the traumas of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. and the global market. Besides, the dramatic increase in the number of jobless claims also seems to weigh on the demand for crude oil. Support Resistance 6,999 7,130 6,936 7,196 6,806 7,327 Pivot Point 7,066 BTC/USD – Daily Forecast Bitcoin traded with a bearish bias to trade at 6,861 area after having violated the immediate support level of 7,000 level. Currently, the leading crypto pair may find support at 6,700 level as it's been extended by the upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. Violation of this level can open further room for selling until 6,577 area while resistance holds around 6,920 and 7,210. Bearish bias seems dominant below the 6,920 level today. Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair registered further losses and dropped to 1.0825 from 1.0870 level during the Asian trading hours as the broad-based US dollar continues to taking bids due to Monday's oil prices crash in the wake of coronavirus negative impact. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0833 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0825 - 1.0872. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0870 to 1.0825 recently as the American dollar gained strength across the board, mainly against growth-linked Pacific currencies. The dollar index, tracking the value of the greenback against majors, rose 0.20% to levels above 100.00. Most of the traders are preferring to choose the US dollar as a safe-haven-demand due to the fears of economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak. On the other hand, lower oil prices may boost real incomes and support consumer spending. Markets are currently worried about their adverse effects. The US shale industry and other oil producers could be damage from it. Looking forward, as Germany's Zew Survey is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT and will likely influence the shared currency. The data calendar across the pond is light with Existing Home Sales, which is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. The coronavirus related headlines could take the driver's seat. Support Resistance 1.0826 1.0907 1.0779 1.094 1.0698 1.1021 Pivot Point 1.0859 EUR/USD – Daily Forecast The EUR/USD is trading sideways, holding mostly below previously violated trendline of 1.0859. Now, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade at 1.8411, holding below the strong resistance level of 1.0885. On the higher side, the next resistance holds at 1.0859 an 1.0930. While below 1.0859 level, the market has strong odds of falling further until the next support level of 1.0765. The downward breakout of 1.08230 can trigger a sell-off of up to 1.0725. Today, consider selling below 1.0859. During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair suffered losses in Asia and could continue to lose ground in the European session mainly due to the coronavirus crisis continue to exerting bearish pressure on the British pound. The broad-based US dollar strength also keeps the currency pair lower. Although, the GBP/USD pair’s recent weakness towards revisiting a 21-day SMA level of 1.2355 recently took some strength from the pair’s decline to the 8-day low. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2408 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2389 - 1.2449. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of the critical UK data. The GBP/USD currency pair could reverse its bearish bias, possibly if the surprisingly positive data comes during this day ahead. At the data front, Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the March month Claimant Count figures along with the Unemployment Rate in the 3-months to February at 06:00 AM GMT. The UK labor market report is expected to present the average weekly earnings, with bonuses, in the three months to February, with an increment of 3.0%. Meanwhile, the wages, excluding bonuses, are also expected to rise by 3.1% in the reported period. It's worth mentioning that the number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is expected to rise by 172.5K in March against +17.3K seen last. Moreover, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% during the period. The U.K. Average Earnings, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), known as a key short-term indicator of how payment levels are changing in the UK economy, dropped sharply by 2.8%. Generally, the positive earnings growth forecasts consider positive (or bullish) for the British pound, whereas low figures seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP. Support Resistance 1.2433 1.2544 1.2365 1.2586 1.2254 1.2697 Pivot Point 1.2475 On Tuesday, the choppy trading in GBP/USD continues as the pair is trading within a narrow trading range of 1.2500 - 1.2400. Selling bias seems strong as the pair is striving to violate this choppy range on the lower side. With this, the GBP/USD may open further room for selling until 1.2300 and 1.2150. The GBP/USD will determine the next movement upon the breakout of this sideways channel, which is supporting Sterling at 1.2400 area along with resistance around 1.2525. The bearish bias remains strong today. Good luck!
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